Both, BJP and Congress, are campaigning hard for the Gujarat elections 2017. So hard that Narendra Modi has postponed the winter session of the parliament, Rahul Gandhi has been attending to so many of the temples, which he might not have done in his life-time till now. So, who will win and who will lose?
I do not know for sure, but what I know is that whoever goes on to win Gujarat 2017 will go on to lose India 2019 (or India 2018, as Narendra Modi might call for early elections, more on that later).
Why would the above happen? For number of reasons listed below:
Be it Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Goa, even Karnataka; all these States already had a BJP CM along with NaMo being a Gujarat CM. Narendra Modi turned out to be First Among Equals (or Unequals). Election results in any of these States can be put down to the incumbent Chief Minister and Narendra Modi is not liable for victory / defeat, personally and hence no visible change in the working of the Central Government or him / Amit Shah (The Shadow).
However, Gujarat is personal to NaMo, with all the State leaders (calling them leaders is an irony) being mere puppets – earlier Anandiben and now, Vijay Rupani, Nitin Patel, does not matter what the name is. If BJP wins with a star-cast of extras, Narendra Modi, Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah (these are the only 3 people to run Central Government and BJP), will go head-long into their follies of Aadhaar, GST and I wonder what they will come up with next and this will back-fire for their arrogance and they will pay it up with defeat in 2018, I am sure that election victory in Gujarat will encourage these people to call for election in 2nd half of next year.
Victory in Gujarat will make Narendra Modi emboldened to continue with the mistakes of last 1.5 years, inaction since the first 6 months, make him even more egotistical and take him away from the pulse of the country. Result – Lose India 2018.
Congress has been away from power in Gujarat since last 22 years, the result being that all the scions of the erstwhile Gujarat CMs from Congress are now into their 60s and hungry for power, money and corruption. If Congress wins, Rahul Gandhi will surely get the credit (though not for the loss), and Congress will keep changing Chief Minister every 6 months to give everybody a chance for their share of the loot and it will be for everybody to see nationally in one and a half year time when national elections will be due that Congress has stooped to such a level that it cannot govern anything, leave aside the country.
Congress can actually win Gujarat 2017, an idea nobody thought was ever possible when Narendra Modi was the Gujarat CM, but not having a leader of its own, and dependence on Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani with they also wanting their un-fair share will only lead to the chaos and the loot. Result – Lose India 2019.
The Third Front
All the 3 mentioned in the above para know that there is no place for Third Front in Gujarat, when Keshubhai and Shankarsingh have themselves failed, so they have aligned themselves with Congress – a lesson to learn nationally, though I am not sure if it is always beneficial as polarisation can happen either ways and in often unexpected manner – did not help BJP in Bihar but led to massive victory in UP.
In nutshell, Gujarat 2017 is a good election to lose, to lose the battle but win the war of India 2019.